Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has downplayed his team’s chances of progressing in the Champions League, suggesting they have just a “1%” shot at overturning their first-leg defeat against Real Madrid. The Premier League side suffered a dramatic collapse at home, surrendering a 2-1 lead in the final minutes to lose 3-2. Now, they face the daunting task of winning at the Santiago Bernabeu—where they have only triumphed once in their history—if they hope to avoid an early exit from the competition.
A Daunting Task Ahead for City
Manchester City’s loss in the first leg at the Etihad Stadium has left them in a difficult position heading into the return fixture. Despite leading 2-1 with just minutes remaining, a late surge from Real Madrid turned the game around, putting the Spanish giants in control of the tie. Guardiola acknowledged the uphill battle his team faces, admitting that their chances of progressing are slim.
“The margin to win at the Bernabeu in this position—everybody knows how difficult that is,” Guardiola said. “If you asked before the game about our chances of going through, maybe we arrive at 1% or something like that. But as long as we have a chance, we will try, that’s for sure.”
The Spanish manager emphasized that the first-leg result significantly reduced their likelihood of advancing. Had they held on to their lead, their odds would have been much higher.
“If we had finished the first leg 2-1, it would be a completely different situation,” he explained. “But with the way things ended, our chances have dropped. Still, as long as there is a possibility, we will fight for it.”
A Season of Struggles for Guardiola’s City
Guardiola’s tenure at Manchester City has been one of remarkable success, but this season has proven to be one of his most challenging. The club’s Premier League title hopes are slipping away, and their Champions League campaign has been far from their usual high standards. Instead of cruising into the last 16, City found themselves in the play-off round—a rare setback for a team that has dominated European football in recent years.
This inconsistency has been a major concern for Guardiola, who has openly admitted that his team has struggled to maintain the level of performance they have become known for.
“There have been many games where we simply didn’t play at the level we are capable of,” Guardiola said. “And when you lose like that, it doesn’t just cost you points—it affects your mindset going into the next game.”
Despite their struggles, City showed flashes of brilliance in their recent 4-0 Premier League victory over Newcastle. New signing Omar Marmoush scored a hat-trick in that game, and Guardiola will be hoping his team can carry that momentum into their clash with Real Madrid.
Injury Concerns Loom Over City’s Second-Leg Hopes
As if the task ahead wasn’t difficult enough, Manchester City may have to face Real Madrid without their star striker, Erling Haaland. The Norwegian goal machine, who scored both of City’s goals in the first leg—including a late penalty—was forced off in the second half against Newcastle with what appeared to be a knee injury.
Guardiola has yet to confirm whether Haaland will be fit for the second leg, but his potential absence would be a huge blow to City’s hopes of a comeback. Haaland has been a crucial part of their attack, and without him, the team would have to rely on other players to step up in a high-pressure environment.
A History of Struggles at the Bernabeu
Winning at the Santiago Bernabeu has never been easy for Manchester City. Their only victory at the iconic stadium came in February 2020, during the round of 16 in the Champions League. Since then, they have struggled against Real Madrid, particularly in knockout stages.
The Spanish club’s history in the Champions League makes them one of the most formidable opponents in European football. Time and time again, Real Madrid have shown their ability to perform under pressure, often producing dramatic comebacks to eliminate even the strongest teams.
Guardiola is well aware of the challenge, acknowledging that City must deliver something special to turn the tie around.
“We know what kind of team we are facing,” he said. “They have experience, they know how to win these games, and they are playing at home. But we have to believe that we can do it.”
What Manchester City Must Do to Overcome Real Madrid
If Manchester City are to stand any chance of progressing, they will need a near-perfect performance at the Bernabeu. There are a few key areas they must focus on:
1. Defensive Stability: City’s late collapse in the first leg was a major concern. They must remain focused for the full 90 minutes and not allow Real Madrid any easy opportunities to score.
2. Clinical Finishing: If Haaland is not scoring, the others will need to step up in front of goal. Every chance must be taken.
3. Midfield Control: Winning the midfield battle will be crucial. The midfielders must dictate the tempo and limit Madrid’s ability to create scoring opportunities.
4. Mental Strength: City must believe in their ability to complete the comeback. A strong mentality will be essential in dealing with the pressure of playing at the Bernabeu.
Can City Defy the Odds?
While Guardiola has downplayed his team’s chances, it would be unwise to completely write off Manchester City. They have pulled off dramatic results in the past and possess the quality to compete with any team in Europe. However, Real Madrid’s experience in these situations gives them a clear advantage.
The second leg at the Bernabeu will be a defining moment in City’s season. If they can produce a performance of the highest level, they may still have a chance to progress. But as Guardiola himself admitted, the odds are stacked against them.
“The reality is we have been miles and miles away from where we want to be this season,” Guardiola admitted. “But we are going to give it everything we have and see what happens.”
With their Champions League hopes hanging by a thread, Manchester City must find a way to defy the odds. The challenge is enormous, but in football, nothing is impossible.
